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Wednesday, October 17, 2012

Gandhi's Words that can Inspire

1. ON LIFE

"My life is my message."

2. ON BEING A SOLDIER

“I regard myself as a soldier, though a soldier of peace.“

3. ON FAITH IN HUMANITY

“You must not lose faith in humanity. Humanity is an ocean; if a few drops of the ocean are dirty, the ocean does not become dirty."

4. ON NONVIOLENCE

“Nonviolence is the first article of my faith. It is also the last article of my creed.”

5. ON THE SEVEN SINS

“Seven social sins: politics without principles, wealth without work, pleasure without conscience, knowledge without character, commerce without morality, science without humanity, and worship without sacrifice."

6. ON TRUTH

“An error does not become truth by reason of multiplied propagation, nor does truth become error because nobody sees it. Truth stands, even if there be no public support. It is self sustained.”

7.ON THE "STILL SMALL VOICE"

“The only tyrant I accept in this world is the 'still small voice' within me. And even though I have to face the prospect of being a minority of one, I humbly believe I have the courage to be in such a hopeless minority.”

8.ON LIBERTY

“I’m a lover of my own liberty, and so I would do nothing to restrict yours.”

9. ON FORGIVENESS

“The weak can never forgive. Forgiveness is the attribute of the strong.”

10. ON THE NATURE OF MAN

“A man is but the product of his thoughts. What he thinks, he becomes."



Sunday, October 7, 2012

( I dont know why I am publishing this but I feel I must)

Sandi McCann of Boulder, Colorado, remembers a particularly vivid October morning four years ago, when she was hustling off to work. She was worrying about her college-aged daughter’s tuition money, which was evaporating in the falling stock market, and generally feeling burned out at work and in her personal life.

The 51-year-old McCann was good at her marketing job. She’d been doing it for nearly 30 years, and up until now, her six-figure income had provided adequate security for herself and the daughter she was raising on her own. Also, she was quick to admit, the adrenaline rush that came from working with high-profile clients was addictive. But the work was never inspiring, and now it was draining her energy and spirit.

It didn’t help that McCann was still reeling from her divorce. She’d left her husband more than a year earlier after discovering he had cheated on her and siphoned hundreds of thousands of dollars out of their joint account and into a secret money market. The divorce took months to finalize, and by 2008 she was still dealing with the legal aftermath.

But McCann gritted her teeth and soldiered on. She was doing what she felt she had to do and never stopped long enough to consider whether she was living a life she desired.

Until that October day in 2008. Late for work, she rushed out of the house, and the spring-loaded backdoor slammed, trapping her index finger and stopping her in her tracks.

“I just stood there and wailed,” she remembers. “I cried because of the pain but also because it was a metaphor for my life."

That feeling of being trapped in an unfulfilling routine is common among people in their late 40s and 50s. When faced with an empty nest, a changing body and, often, a desire to jump off the career fast track, they tend to question whether they are happy or feel satisfied, says John Seeley, a personal growth coach in Newport Beach, Calif., and the author of Get Unstuck: The Simple Guide to Restart Your Life.

Discovering that the answer is “No!” can be a jolting realization. But there’s an upside to this kind of reality check: It can launch you toward a life of greater accomplishment and contribution.

The Power of Having a Life Purpose

People become energized when they have a meaningful goal to pursue, says Patricia Boyle, a neuropsychologist at the Rush Alzheimer's Disease Center in Chicago. When we are driven to do something that we feel makes a difference in the world, we are infused with positive emotion, energy and vitality, and our risk of cognitive decline also drops.

“Participating in activities that bring fulfillment, that connect you to what’s important to you, will help you function better and even flourish,” Boyle says.

The Japanese call this state ikigai, or having a reason to get up in the morning or the belief that life is worth living.

This isn’t to say that you’ll be totally blissed out and giddy once you hit upon a goal that fires you up. Often the things people are driven to do are loaded with challenge and adversity — like helping underprivileged kids or quitting a high-paying career to write a book — but you’ll also experience a sense of accomplishment simply by pursuing those things that feel significant.

Discovering Whether You’re Stuck

At first, though, most of us don’t even notice when we’ve gotten ourselves in a rut. We’re so busy keeping up with our work obligations, managing the household and paying the bills that we have little time or energy left to explore our own interests — or evaluate whether what we’re doing is on track with our desires, Seeley says.

People can carry on like that for years or even decades until they, like McCann, get a wake-up call.

6 Warning Signs That You May Be Stuck

According to Seeley and Boyle, these are indicators that you could be in a rut:
  1. You feel as though something is missing.
  2. You feel uncomfortable even with the familiar.
  3. You no longer know what you like to do.
  4. You feel rundown and may come down with repeated colds or contract an illness.
  5. You begin showing up late for work or you have a hard time getting out of bed in the morning.
  6. Your spouse complains that you’re acting withdrawn or unmotivated. 
(MORE: 3 Secrets of Successful Midlife Reinvention)

Reconnect to Your Passion
 
The good news is, once you recognize that you’re in a funk, there are plenty of things you can do to get out of it. Unlike depression, Seeley says, stuckness doesn’t dull your desire to learn or have unique experiences. You don’t lose your sense of curiosity or interest — they’ve just been simmering on the back burner too long. The way out of this stalled state is to find out what’s really cooking by turning up the heat.
 
Boyle and Seeley suggest four good strategies:
  1. Flashback to move forward. What did you once enjoy as a child or young adult? Give it a try now. If you liked to dance, get your groove on again. Was cooking your thing? Take a culinary class. Just thinking about the fun you had in your younger days will help you plug into your innate creativity and get you thinking about what might excite you now.
  2. Check out different activities. Novelty is the antidote to stagnation. The way to create some movement in your life is to try something new and experiment a bit. Sure, you’ll find plenty that you don’t like, but you’ll also uncover a few pleasant surprises.
  3. Consider your legacy. By midlife, we have a bit of perspective and a sense of our values and priorities. Think about what they are for you then ask: Do I spend some time each day in support of these qualities? If you don’t, rearrange your schedule and pay daily attention to the principles you care about most and the things you want to be known for.
  4. Give back. Mow your neighbor’s lawn, deliver meals to the homebound, help out at a school. You’ll experience the good feelings of a helper’s high and may even discover your ikigai. 
McCann began trying several news things, while still in her corporate job, to find a way out of her stuckness. In her off time, she intensified her yoga practice and trained to become an instructor. She altered her diet and replaced processed and packaged items with healthier whole foods, and she began meditating.
 
Slowly, she realized that the more she pursued new avenues, the less satisfying her old path was — and the less willing she was to continue down it. In 2011, she quit her marketing job, and for months lived off a small severance package and savings. She vacillated between exhilaration from her newfound freedom and utter panic about what she would do next. But the strong conviction that she was doing the right thing kept her going. 

McCann realized that she’d felt the deepest sense of joy and purpose when she'd helped to care for her dad's terminally ill wife, while she was still working. Now, with different possibilities before her, she was moved to do more of that work. In January 2012 she started a new career providing care and assistance to people who needed help aging in place.
 
The Courage to Fly
 
It takes guts to ditch what you’ve been doing to survive and to go looking for something that will allow you to thrive. But whether you're working full-time or have the financial flexibility to jump ship and immerse yourself in something new, the search can begin now. And when you find your own ikigai, you’ll shift from a life spent idling in neutral to one that revs you up and drives you into the day.
 
“You’ve got to let go of the trapeze bar and be OK suspended in midair for a while,” McCann says. “Yeah, you're probably going to fall a few times. But you’ve got to be willing to let go if you’re ever going to fly.”  

Polly Campbell writes and speaks on personal development and spirituality topics. She is the author of Imperfect Spirituality: Extraordinary Enlightenment for Ordinary People.
 

Thursday, July 5, 2012

Better late than never

A long and an unanticipated break from blogging and I am not too proud of it.  As usual, yours truly was being lazy to the z.  So, here I am sitting in my office feeling a bit 'I dont want to do anything right now'.  To make amends for the missed entries (there should have been around 100 more by now) here is a funny distraction to amuse you (?) my nameless, ghost reader:

(What you see below are the more famous Yogi Berra's malapropisms sourced from Wikipedia)

1. Always go to other people's funerals; otherwise they won't go to yours.

2. When You Come to a Fork in the Road, Take It

3. The future ain't what it used to be.

4. I knew the record would stand until it was broken.

5. I really didn't say everything I said

6. "I looked like this when I was young, and I still do."

7. What Time Is It? You Mean Now

8. I really didn't say everything I said. [...] Then again, I might have said 'em, but you never know.

9. If people don't want to come to the ballpark how are you going to stop them?

10. If the world were perfect, it wouldn't be.

11. If you ask me a question I don't know, I'm not going to answer.

12. If you can't imitate him, don't copy him.

13. If you don't know where you're going, you might not get there.

14. It ain't over 'till it's over.

15. It gets late early out there.

16. It's déjà vu all over again.

17. Little things are big.

18. Ninety percent of this game is half-mental.

19. Nobody goes there anymore. It's too crowded.

20. Pair up in threes.

21. Thank you for making this day necessary.

22. We made too many wrong mistakes.

23. Berra says this is part of driving directions to his house in Montclair, New Jersey. There is a fork in the road, and whichever way you take, you will get to his house.

24. You can observe a lot by watching.

25. He was on a passenger jet at the time, so he was not sure in which time zone he was.

Wednesday, March 28, 2012

India in 1 day (NY Times)

March 23, 2012

India in One, Two or Three Weeks By GUY TREBAY

THE connection between travel and a Coco Chanel dictum may not be that obvious. The French designer once purportedly said that a woman should stop before leaving the house, gaze in the mirror and then remove one piece of jewelry. The operative principle was to simplify.
In travel it is seldom acknowledged how routinely people pile on excess. And while this may not hold true on cruises or Club Med, where the biggest daily challenge is finding the proper level of SPF, among independent travelers the tendency is to take on countries, regions, continents, galaxies.

From the placid vantage of a laptop, the world looks manageable. In real time, the degree of travel difficulty unfolds in agonizing increments. Did I really think I could fit all that into a week? I did.

Across almost three decades of travel I’ve often noted the general custom; I’ve inflicted it on myself. And it occurs to me that in few other places are Chanel’s words of advice better applied than India, a country my passports inform me I have visited more than 20 times. Assuming, perhaps, that the first trip to that compelling and bewildering country will be their only one, friends cram itineraries full to the point where misery is a guarantee. Thus my advice to pals heading to South Asia is to appraise the itinerary with a ruthless eye and then, long before heading to the airport, strike something off.

First-timers to India tend to be guided unvaryingly (and sensibly) around the so-called Golden Triangle (Delhi/Agra/Jaipur). This route, straightforward enough on paper, requires some discernment to get right. A policy of less is more is always sensible in India, in order to limit the shock the place inevitably delivers to an average Westerner’s system.

A question often posed is whether a week is enough time to cover the birthplace of three great faiths — Hinduism, Buddhism and Jainism. The answer, reasonably, is no. But travelers are not reasonable people, and it is distinctly possible to absorb the essence of India in CliffsNotes form.

The One-Week Trip

It is useful to start in the capital. A city created, like great geological formations, of time-sculptured and overlapping strata, Delhi is seven cities at least and almost as many civilizations collapsed, accreted and jumbled into one.

Despite its shambolic beginnings and ambient tumult, Delhi is a pleasing city to visit, in part because it retains swaths of forest greenbelt — its broad avenues, its traffic roundabouts and other useful systems bequeathed by the imperial nannies of the British Raj. Compared with the horn-honking frenzy of industrial tech centers elsewhere in the country, Delhi remains notably civilized. It is, as is often noted, Washington, D.C., to Mumbai’s New York.

START IN DELHI

A week in India, I tell friends, axiomatically begins with two days in the capital (for simplicity’s sake I am referring to time spent in-country; nearly a full day is lost traveling to India from the East Coast of the United States). And, if budget permits, I advise them to book into one of the city’s fine, though pricey top-tier hotels. There is a reason for this. Delhi is ever sprawling, and the premium you pay at hotels like the Taj Mahal or the Oberoi for a central location and for “amenities” like potable tap water (even ice is safe in such places these days), knowledgeable concierges, well-trained staff and, yes, consistent electrical service is repaid a thousandfold by reduced time in traffic and a placid digestive tract.

Because I believe that denial is the only plausible treatment for jet lag, after the usual 1 a.m. arrival and witching-hour check-in, I tend to sleep what few hours remain before dawn, setting the alarm for breakfast so that I can launch myself into the first day.

Some intrepid types navigate the city on the newly extended and, from all accounts, efficient Metro. In the interest of time-saving, I just flag down a cab at the hotel taxi rank. In most Indian cities the beloved Hindustan Ambassador taxi, its buglike design little altered since 1958, has begun to vanish, replaced by more modern vehicles. In Delhi, though, the Ambassador remains a reassuringly constant presence. No less comforting is the off-meter flat rate many drivers remain willing to accept. While this rate is subject to change at any time, in my experience it has held surprisingly steady for more than a decade: 1,000 rupees (or about $21 at current exchange rates) hires a car for 50 miles or eight hours.
While every guidebook instructs visitors to start out by seeing the lanes of Old Delhi, the Mughal sites like the Red Fort and the colossal mosque known as Jama Masjid, I gave up on the noise and crowds and filth of Old Delhi long ago. I advise friends to save their awe instead for the next phase of the journey, for Agra and the Taj Mahal, for Emperor Akbar’s little-visited tomb at nearby Sikandra, and for Fatehpur Sikri, the evanescent red sandstone city that lies about 20 miles down the road from the great and, in my impious view, overrated shrine to love.

But I’m getting ahead of myself. Back in the capital on one’s first day in the country, I recommend bypassing the old city to have a driver convey one instead in early morning to Rashtrapati Bhavan, now the presidential residence, though built for the British viceroy and thus a cornerstone of Sir Edwin Lutyens’s New Delhi and symbolic centerpiece of the British Raj. Heightened security has made it difficult to experience this complex of government buildings except at some distance or through gates. So I tend to have the car park on a side road while I stroll the broad Rajpath, which leads downhill from Raisina Hill to India Gate.
Few remnants of the colonial presence in India survive as nearly intact as does Rashtrapati Bhavan; fewer still evince comparable architectural modesty — a notable feature for an array of buildings designed to express imperial might.
This may be the place to note the presence of animals in urban Indian settings, the cows that still turn up on New Delhi medians despite laws that ban their presence; the white stallions trotting through traffic on the way to a wedding ceremony; the goat flocks being herded along the four-lane blacktop in Tamil Nadu. At Rashtrapati Bhavan, the wildlife takes the form of impertinent monkeys that fling themselves across the facades of the red sandstone pavilions, tails looping from domed chhatris, prehensile thumbs hitched on to crevices of pierced-sandstone jali screens as they nonchalantly delouse themselves.
From Raisina Hill and the presidential residence, I typically have my taxi drive on to the National Museum, whose survey collection provides a fine grounding for visitors in need of a playbook to India’s cultural and religious multiplicities. After this, I have a late lunch at one of several downtown outposts of a restaurant called Nathu’s Sweets, a Delhi institution noted for its Bengali home-cooking and unctuous desserts.
The Nathu’s branch I frequent occupies a corner of the antiques enclave called Sunder Nagar Market, and thus is convenient for a leisurely afternoon tour through the Aladdin’s-cave-like emporiums there, places like Ladakh Art Gallery or Bharany’s, a shop whose presiding, though occasionally absent spirit is C. L. Bharany, a wizened ancient with a sharp sense of business and an expansive philosophy of life.
That’s plenty for one day, especially on little sleep: head back to your hotel, I tell friends. Order a club sandwich and watermelon juice and sack out.
On Day 2, I tend to set out early for South Delhi and for the austere and distinctly phallic minaret at Qutb Minar, or else spend time at the seldom-visited Sikh Gurudwara Bangla Sahib, or at an obscure ruins near the woodlands of Mehrauli known as Jamali Kamali Masjid.
Few locals even know of this mosque complex named for a Sufi saint interred beside his male lover. I’d never heard of it before being taken there by Bim Bissell, the irrepressible matriarch of the family behind the Indian handicrafts emporium chain Fabindia.
On our visit, Bim mentioned to me offhandedly that when her children were young, the family customarily packed food for al fresco meals at Jamali Kamali. It seemed somehow characteristic of both Bim and her city that it was a natural thing to picnic with your children at a tomb.
After my morning outings, I tend to make my way to Basil and Thyme for lunch. This simple and surprisingly inexpensive cafe is in a bungalow in Santushti Shopping Complex, itself set behind the walls of New Wellington Camp, Air Force Station, a shopping complex much favored by Delhi’s retail-mad leisure class.
Here, the chef, Bhicoo J. Manekshaw — now closing in on 90 and retired from the stove — continues to devise menus offering fresh, unfussy fare best categorized under the rubric of what was once called “butler food” in India. Over lunch of cold-poached salmon or roast chicken with black mushroom stuffing, washed down with fresh lime soda, it is easy to forget that outside Santushti’s gated walls is a tumultuous city of 14 million and that one is not just passing time before catching the 5:05 to Cos Cob.
After lunch I poke around at Santushti, stopping in at Anokhi to see the new offerings produced by this Jaipur-based company specializing in hand-block printed fabrics, and at Tulsi, the small shop run by the designer Neeru Kumar. From there I move on by taxi to Baba Kharak Singh Marg, an avenue that juts like a radial spoke from the central roundabout of Connaught Circus.
Baba Kharak Singh Marg is among the last remaining streets in India where it is possible to find an array of government-sponsored emporiums, places that, in a drowsy and state-subsidized way, promote the specialist crafts that are fast disappearing from the Indian scene. From Andhra Pradesh comes iron and silver filigree work called Bidriware; from Orissa, paintings on palm fiber; from Rajasthan, white-on-white patchwork appliqué; from Assam, the naturally golden silk called muga; from Kashmir, the lacquerware that is pretty inescapable in India or, for that matter, at ABC Carpet & Home.
If fatigue threatens, this experience can be condensed by stopping in at Kamala, a well curated omnibus crafts shop run by the Crafts Council of India, at the end of the state shop parade.
(Of course, if one happens to be in Delhi on a weekend, it is worth ditching the country club lunch at Santushti to splash out on the buffet at the Threesixty restaurant in the Oberoi hotel. The most steroidal bar mitzvah feast has nothing on the Oberoi’s buffet, a prime example of the notion that in India too much is hardly ever enough — although, of course, for much of the population too little is a grim and permanent condition.)
Fortified by lunch, and as a preparation for the journey to Agra, I urge friends to head straight for Humayun’s Tomb. For decades this monument was a travesty — its fountains and watercourses barren, its lawns moth-eaten, its ancient palisades in peril of imminent collapse. Wasps had built vast bulbous nests in the pointed Mughal archways; shanty dwellers had built their own improvised nests in crevices of the monument walls.
Though evocative in decay, Humayun’s Tomb is no less so today, restored with funds from the Aga Khan Trust for Culture, and in all of Delhi or even of India, there can be few places lovelier than Humayun’s Tomb at sunset, when the waning light of day outlines the tiled dome and eagles hang in the thermals above the nearby Yamuna River.

ON TO THE TAJ MAHAL
From Delhi, I typically hire a car and driver through the hotel travel desk and head to Agra. And while I would prefer not to spend a night in this shamefully polluted city, this is the only proper way to visit the Taj Mahal.
What I mean is that the Taj Mahal seen in the glaring sun of an Indian midday, as happens when you reach it after arriving from Delhi, can seem as ghostly blank as an overexposed photo. Seen at dusk or dawn, however, the structure’s marmoreal surface magically absorbs and reflects the ambient colors of sky and clouds and even a hint of the orangy pollution belched out by nearby industries.
Upon arrival at Agra on one’s third day in India and having risen to see the great monument near dawn, it is usual to press on to Jaipur on a route that takes you first to Fatehpur Sikri, among the most evocative ruins in India.
Unlike the Taj Mahal, which impresses but rarely moves me, this city abandoned in the 16th century is a deeply atmospheric place, rising as it does from farm fields in the middle of seemingly nowhere. A complex of meeting halls, women’s quarters, courtyard gardens and stables for elephants, Fatehpur Sikri was occupied for a mere 14 years before a shortage of water forced its abandonment. Like all lost cities, it is a screen onto which one is free to project any narrative of your choosing. It is a poetic place, as even the wild parrots scribbling their vivid green arabesques above the old minarets seem to know.
From there I continue on to Jaipur, the fabled Pink City, which is, by Indian standards, not that old (17th century) and by any reasonable estimate, not so roseate, either. Still, Jaipur must be seen for at least three reasons: the City Palace; a hilltop redoubt outside town called Amber (pronounced Amer) Fort; and Gem Palace, which is not a palace at all.
Even an hourlong tour of City Palace, a multistory ancestral home of the high-living Anglophile Maharajahs of Jaipur, provides a tantalizing peek into the voluptuary lives of the acquisitive royals, who collected miniatures by the yard, silver by the ton, carpets seemingly by the mile.
At Amber Fort, the ruling Kachhawa clan lived and ruled from a hilltop redoubt of red sandstone and white marble, where the fused influences of Hindu and Muslim architecture are only part of the pleasure of place. The fort is best reached on elephant back (a bit of tourist hokum that is well worth it) and is notable both for interiors that feature the latest technological innovations of earlier ages — cascading water running down marble ramps provided an early form of air-conditioning — and views of the barren Aravalli range.
It makes sense to save Gem Palace for last because it is the sort of place that yields up its secrets slowly. Chambers filled with cases of jewels and silver lead into each other, and serious shoppers will often find a member of the Kasliwal family — which has run the place for generations — beckoning them into a back room for glimpses of treasures not kept on public view.
Gem Palace is one of those purveyors passed around like a secret among cognoscenti, though realistically it’s not much of a secret. Eventually everyone from the philanthropist Anne Bass to Giorgio Armani to Aunt Tillie has wandered in at some point. The greater challenge is getting out without losing your shirt.
That then is the one-week plan. You might return to New Delhi and fly home, or else stay on and — doubling the available time — use this same basic format for an itinerary easily expanded to encompass places a bit farther afield. The following itineraries can be managed in chunks of two to three days and accordingly the first stop after Jaipur is Jodhpur, my favorite among the cities of Rajasthan.
Two Weeks is Better

DIVE INTO RAJASTHAN
Jodhpur, like the other cities noted below, can probably be adequately enjoyed in two days and is an easy hop by plane from Jaipur via Delhi or Mumbai and an easy place, as well, in which to find hotels at every price. I have tested them all, from the funky stucco pavilions of Ajit Bhawan to the businesslike Hari Mahal. There is, though, only one ideal place to lay one’s head in this desert outpost, and that is the Indo-Saracenic pile called Umaid Bhawan Palace.
Last of the mega-palaces built over a century-long building spree by Indian maharajahs, Umaid Bhawan is sometimes likened to a Victorian railway station and invariably said to have been built as a charitable work-relief program for a region beset by a prolonged and killing drought. Believe what you like, the place can be reliably said to belong to its resident owner, the Oxford-educated Gaj Singh II, 64, the Maharajah of Jodhpur, who inherited the immense pile at age 4.
A vast and haunting palace, replete with Bohemian chandeliers, gilt tête-à-têtes and taxidermied trophies bagged during ancient shikars, Umaid Bhawan sits atop a low hill and overlooks another of Gaj Singh’s properties, the great citadel of Mehrangarh Fort.
Umaid Bhawan is now operated in partnership with Taj Hotels Resorts & Palaces, and it must be said that a certain amount of its quiddity was lost in hotel-chain translation. Still, the palace retains its time-stopped aura and, perhaps alone among the great Rajasthan palaces, easily conjures an era when palace ladies led segregated, gossipy lives in the secluded zenana, when the gallants of the legendary Jodhpur polo teams played fierce chukkers and returned to drink stiff whiskies in a bar where, to this day, a stuffed black bear stands upright with a drinks tray balanced in its paws.
A visit to Jodhpur logically starts with a trip to the hilltop citadel of Mehrangarh Fort, where, up a series of ramps and past the studded elephant gates is a historical fortress museum almost without parallel in India.
Gaj Singh II was an early adopter of Western-style curatorial practices, a welcome anomaly in a country so stuffed with antiquities that treasures are often carelessly left by their owners to be devoured by white ants or to rot in the dust. The Mehrangarh collection includes silver elephant howdahs, Jodhpur school miniatures, arms and armor, and textiles. The fort itself, though massive, stupendous and ominous when seen from afar, is surprisingly intimate and homey within: a series of mirrored chambers of pleasure and rest.
From the sinuous ramparts of Mehrangarh there are fine, expansive views of the surrounding Thar Desert and — barnacled to the flanks of the fortress — the traditional houses of the city’s Brahmins, all painted Krishna blue.



TAKE A DRIVE TO UDAIPUR



From Jodhpur I go on to Udaipur, again booking a driver and car for a road trip that Google Maps pegs at precisely five hours and 20 minutes. At a guess, the geniuses at Google Maps have never actually seen an Indian road. I myself find a useful rule of thumb when in India to double the estimated road time and average things out.



Winding slowly uphill through sere desert and a region inhabited by a pacifist tribe called the Bhils, the drive from Jodhpur eventually crests the Aravallis before descending into a startlingly verdant landscape of cultivated fields.



Only by traveling overland are you able to visit the Jain Adinatha Temple at Ranakpur, an ineffable monument of marble whose hall contains either hundreds or thousands of intricately carved columns, depending upon whom you ask. It is an austere place, one whose ecstatic carvings create an atmosphere of quietly humming spiritual intensity, something like a fission lab for souls.



A fine (and, essentially, the only) stopping-off point at Ranakpur is Maharani Bagh Orchard Retreat, a former country house still in the family of the Maharajah of Jodhpur. Set amid gardens and fruit groves, the hotel is right off a main artery where, come evening, one can watch the traffic of barefoot pilgrims heading toward the temple as red-turbaned Rabari tribesmen head the opposite way with their herds of sheep or goats.



The end point of this particular road trip is Udaipur, a lovely though to my mind essentially dull spot whose chief points of interest are the finely conserved City Palace of Maharana Udai Singh II, the renowned Taj Lake Palace hotel and the ritzy Oberoi Udaivilas overlooking Lake Pichola from shoreside just outside of town. Udaipur is a great place to unwind, though. For those lucky enough to put up at Lake Palace, there is a ready excuse for enforced idleness, since the only way to reach the hotel or leave it is by boat.



Three Weeks, Divine



HEAD TO THE DESERT



For more leisured travelers, and bucket list types, I advise a longer journey, one that heads from Udaipur, by road, for the majestic destination of Jaisalmer, a desert city that is among the oldest of Rajasthan’s fortress citadels, a once sleepy place whose tourist potential has been exploited as ruthlessly as its conservation has been sadly allowed to decline.



Conservation groups are actively working to preserve this fragile monument, where ancient havelis, or merchants’ houses, with lacelike screen walls of wood or stone crowd narrow lanes. Their main task is to keep the fortress walls from outright collapse. In doing so, however, they hope to preserve the ineffable stillness of this golden walled island surrounded by the sand sea that is the Thar Desert, historically known as the Land of Death.



One can easily spend two days or more wandering the narrow lanes, where buildings crowd in on one another (and where pedestrians used to have to yield to cows). Time has a funny way of seeming to stretch infinitely before one in Jaisalmer, during days spent visiting the jewel-box Jain temples dedicated to Rishabhdevji, Sambhavanathji and Ashtapadi, idling on rooftop cafes drinking lassi or scanning the desert from the fortress walls.

STUMBLE INTO AN OASIS
And when you have had enough of that, you can move on to other and even more obscure desert cities, my favorite among them being the rough-and-tumble city of Nagaur, home to a fine citadel
complex known as Ahhichatragarh-Nagaur Fort.
A 200-mile overland journey from Jaisalmer, Nagaur is a challenge to take up only after getting your travel legs in India. The drive is rough and dusty, and when years ago a woman friend and I first fetched up there, dust caked our clothes and filled every uncovered orifice, and our fillings had nearly shaken loose from our teeth. We swore bitterly as we banged on the padlocked fort doors, like Dorothy in Oz, until the gates creaked open and a turbaned figure beckoned us inside.
And there in a courtyard not far from a 17th-century stable block, we found a cluster of luxurious tents, their walls made from hand-block printed cottons, their camp beds covered in thick quilts, the private baths fitted out with showers that rained hot water.
If it is true that in India a traveler is often tested by the tumult, the hustle, the dirt, the pollution, the first-world prices and sometimes second-rate service, the inevitable upturned palms and the overall din, it is also the case that as the advertising campaigns promise, India is in fact incredible.



How else to explain the experience we had of emerging from our private showers at Royal Camp, Nagaur Fort (open only from October to March) to find that we were the only guests at the fort, the sole patrons being served cocktails by a freshly kindled wood fire in a broad Mughal courtyard under the cold black dome of desert sky?



A delicious Rajasthani thali meal was presented on a table set up in an ancient pavilion. Perhaps too much terrible Indian wine was consumed. In our individual tents the bedcovers had been turned down and desert chill staved off by hot-water bottles discreetly tucked into the beds. Delirious sleep overtook us. When we awoke, we found that our plans to stay just a night had suddenly changed.



And that is something I forgot to mention, how in India time is oddly elastic, everything fraught with challenge and wonders so inevitable that it makes sense to allow for enormous changes at the last minute (to swipe Grace Paley’s wonderful phrase). In India the plans you made at home are seldom the final word on the matter. Do yourself a favor and keep that in mind.



IF YOU GO



DELHI



MODERN AMENITIES, LUXURY SERVICE



Taj Mahal Hotel, New Delhi (1 Mansingh Road; 91-11-2302-6162; tajhotels.com).



Oberoi, New Delhi (Dr. Zakir Hussain Marg; 91-11 2436-3030; oberoihotels.com/oberoi_delhi).



IMPERIAL MIGHT



A walk down the Rajpath will take you from Rashtrapati Bhavan (presidentofindia.nic.in/rb.html), the presidential residence, to India Gate.



ALADDIN’S CAVES



Sunder Nagar Market (Mathura Road, south of Purana Qila).



Nathu’s Sweets (2 Sunder Nagar Market; 91-11-2435-2435; nathusweets.com).



Bharany’s (14 Sunder Nagar Market; 91-98728-01419; bharanys.com).



SOUTH SIDE



Gurudwara Bangla Sahib (Cannaught Place, at Ashok Road and Baba Kharag Singh Marg; banglasahib.org).



Jamali Kamali Masjid (in the archaeological village in Mehrauli).



Baba Kharak Singh Marg (off Cannaught Circus).



Santushti Shopping Complex (New Wellington Camp, Air Force Station, Race Course Road).



MUGHAL MONUMENT



Humayun’s Tomb (at the end of Lodi Road at Mathura Road)



AGRA



The Taj Mahal. Sunrise or sunset are the best times to take in the famous white marble mausoleum.



Fatehpur Sikri (Uttar Pradesh, Agra District).



JAIPUR



City Palace (Kanwar Nagar, Tripolia Bazar; 91-141-408-8888; msmsmuseum.com).



Amber Fort (Delhi-Jaipur Highway, 20 minutes north of Jaipur).



Gem Palace (M.I. Road, near Mahavir Marg; 91-14-1237-4175; gempalacejaipur.com).



JODHPUR



Umaid Bhawan Palace (off State Highway 61; 91-29-1251-0101; tajhotels.com).



Mehrangarh Fort (P.B. No. 165, Fort Road; 91-29-1254-8790; mehrangarh.org).



UDAIPUR



Adinatha Temple (about 3 hours, 50 minutes south of Jodhpur in Ranakpur).



Maharani Bagh Orchard Retreat (off State Highway 32, Ranakpur; 91-22-6150-6363; nivalink.com/maharanibagh).



City Palace (City Palace Complex, off Battiyanni Chohtta, northeast Lake Pichola).



Taj Lake Palace (Lake Pichola; 91-29-4242-8800; tajhotels.com).



Oberoi Udaivilas (91-29-4243-3300; oberoihotels.com).

NAGAUR
Ahhichatragarh-Nagaur Fort (91-29-1251-2146; mehrangarh.org/t_nagaur.htm).

Royal Camp Nagaur Fort (91-22-6150-6363; nivalink.com/campnagaur).

GUY TREBAY is a reporter for The New York Times.





Friday, March 9, 2012

When death is your fellow commuter

This week, a close colleague of mine lost his wife. And even though she was suffering from a serious ailment the death was completely unexpected and premature.  I read somewhere that loss of spouse is the most stressful event in a person's life.  I pray that my colleague has the strength to bear his loss and so does their son who is in the middle of his major examinations.

I have always been intrigued and puzzled by mortality.  On one hand it forces one to evaluate one's life and almost invariably you end up feeling  the futility of it all.  On the other hand it just benumbs you.  I mean it is like you are having a great life, all is well and just what you wanted and then, BOOM! Death strikes and a family is a member less.  Like you just walked into a wall and took a nasty jolt on your head.  Complete and utter puzzlement, for the next few moments the mind is just frozen, no pain, no registeration of the blow, no nothing.  We humans are used to using objects, persons and sounds as reference points to create our world around us.  As such when a person leaves, my world is an important piece less.  It is not complete now and I am at a loss to believe that it is the same world which was there earlier.  How can it be? The mind refuses to accept  the new state of affairs.  In other words, what one finds weird is that the world still exists even when a part of that world is now gone forever. 

And yet, mortality has a strange beauty that is equally compelling.  The sense of 'zero' in face of death is also a glimpse of the fundamental truth.  What truth am I talking about? Honestly I am not sure but if I were then perhaps it wouldnt be the fundmental truth anymore.  For isnt it said that the truth is indefineable or inexpressible.  A brush with mortality (someone else's as one's own is outside the scope of this piece) is a brush with the "force" for want of a better word.  And in that sense death is not some boring dull event to be quickly forgotten.  It is like a visit by a rarely seen comet.

 In our fragile lives, births are almost always rejoiced over.  This is mostly because birth of a child is seen as one's own accomplishment, an addition to my family, my next generation, the carrier of my name into eternity and so on.  While most parents thank God for blessing them with a child, it still remains their personal achievement.  On the other hand death is seen as an act of injustice against the family of the deceased.  I am trying to argue that both events are two sides of the same coin.  Both are equally powerful images of the 'force'. 

And thus death too is my fellow passenger in this journey of life.  One day it will get up from its seat, walk through the aisle, stop by where I am sitting and tell me that the next stop is ours.  My nameless ancestors left us, one day my parents will get down and then I too will hold thy hand and disembark from the bus.  The sweet humdrum of life and death will continue, the journey goes on...

Saturday, March 3, 2012

Humdrum sweetness of Life

The four people sitting on the mat were concentration personified.  The youngest of them, a four year old due to his age kept the chatter going.  If you watched closely, three of them were engaged in a mechanical operation of high precision.  This is how the process went: first the person responsible for making dough balls would deftly turn out the balls and pass them on to the roller.  The roller took the ball and using a wooden roller pin would press the ball in to extremely flat circular shapes.  Next she would pass this almost skin thin shape back to the ball maker who would then use a wet ear bud to moisten the outer periphery. 
The ball maker then passed on the slighty wet circular sheath of dough to the third member of the team.  She, the oldest and most experienced, would collect in the small of her palm a specified amount of prepared sweet paste which was the stuffing for the delicacy.  After placing the stuffing in the center of the sheath she would fold it by bringing together the ends of the covering and pressing them together.  And now comes the moment when the artist would affix her signature. The shape resembled a seal lying on its side.  The lead artist would hold the thin edge of the delicacy and using her thumb and index finger pullout the skin and then fold it back and she now repeats the same action over and over again till she she reached the other end.  It now actually resembled a rather motionless seal whose thin side was somewhat corrugated.

The pastry is now deep fried in pure butter till its slightly golden red.  And as some of you might have guessed by now, we are ready to partake the yummy "Gujiya". 
Let me now introduce the members.  My mother, my wife and my daughter.  The youngest guy is my son who with his incessant chatter and entreaties to his mother for some of the sweet paste provided the background music.
A beautiful day in our lives, the feeling of family reinforced even more as my parents return to Delhi tomorrow.  However, I go back to savouring this precious moment and of course the mouth watering gujiyas.

Tuesday, January 3, 2012

Happy 2012

With the Mayans having made dreadfull prophecy about 2012 some thousand years ago humanity has seldom been as nervous entering a new year.  For me the dreadfull part is that 2011 saw rather dismal activity on the blog. But lets try and make up for all that this year.  So resolution for this year - Number of posts for 2012: 250, one for each working day.  And second part of the resolution: Own posts in 2012: 150.

In order to cock a snook at the Mayans who I otherwise love, a new Jokes label! I am starting with one sent by my business partner, Dalip Chandiramani in Singapore. Here goes:


An easily understandable explanation of derivatives market and the crisis


Heidi is the proprietor of a bar in Detroit . She realizes that virtually all of her customers are unemployed alcoholics and, as such, can

no longer afford to patronize her bar.

To solve this problem, she comes up with a new marketing plan that allows her customers to drink now, but pay later. She keeps track of the drinks consumed in a ledger (thereby granting the customers loans).

Word gets around about Heidi's "drink now, pay later" marketing strategy and, as a result, increasing numbers of customers flood into Heidi's bar. Soon she has the largest sales volume for any bar in Detroit.

By providing her customers freedom from immediate payment demands, Heidi gets no resistance when, at regular intervals, she substantially increases her prices for wine and beer, the most consumed beverages. Consequently, Heidi's gross sales volume increases massively.

A young and dynamic Vice President at the local bank recognizes that these customer debts constitute valuable future assets, and increases Heidi's borrowing limit. He sees no reason for any undue concern, since he has the debts of the unemployed alcoholics as collateral.

At the bank's corporate headquarters, expert traders transform these customer loans into DRINKBONDS, ALKIBONDS and PUKEBONDS. These securities are then bundled and traded on international security markets.

Naive investors don't really understand that the securities being sold to them as AAA secured bonds are really the debts of unemployed alcoholics. Nevertheless, the bond prices continuously climb, and the securities soon become the hottest-selling items for some of the nation's leading brokerage houses.

One day, even though the bond prices are still climbing, a risk manager at the original local bank decides that the time has come to demand payment on the debts incurred by the drinkers at Heidi's bar. He so informs Heidi. Heidi then demands payment from her alcoholic patrons. But being unemployed alcoholics, they cannot pay back their drinking debts. Since Heidi cannot fulfill her loan obligations, she is forced into bankruptcy. The bar closes and her eleven employees lose their jobs.

Overnight, DRINKBONDS, ALKIBONDS and PUKEBONDS drop in price by 90%. The collapsed bond asset value destroys the bank's liquidity and prevents it from issuing new loans, thus freezing credit and economic activity in the community.

Suppliers of Heidi's bar had granted her generous payment extensions and had invested their firms' pension funds in the various BOND securities.

They find they are now faced with not only having to write off her bad debt but also with losing over 90% of the presumed value of the bonds. Her wine supplier claims bankruptcy, closing the doors on a family business that had endured for three generations. Her beer supplier is taken over by a competitor, who immediately closes the local plant and lays off 150 workers.

Fortunately though, the bank, the brokerage houses, and their respective executives are saved and bailed out by a multi-billion dollar, no-strings attached cash infusion from their cronies in the Federal Government.

The funds required for this bailout are obtained by new taxes levied on employed, middle-class, non-drinkers who have never been in Heidi's bar!!!



****

Keep Similing :-)


Saturday, December 24, 2011

Three Nation Trip in December 2011

Though in KL for 3 days I could only manage a quick hour's visit to the Petronas.
It was late in the night and thankfully the towers were glowing like sensuous icons to attract aliens.
I placed the camera on the ground and used the timer.

                                          Atop the new Singapore landmark - Marina Bay Sands.  Once again hardly got anytime to see the city (what to see?).  But clearly its a nice and foreigner friendly place.

So here I am , about to land in Colombo.  I couldnt resist the thought if this is how Hanumanji would have seen the coastline :-) Anyway, the short time I was there in the Sri Lankan capital, it was clear that its a cleaner and healthier place.  The population is small but people appeared to be friendly to Indians (?).

 
The Indian ocean was a nice greenish blue but crystal clear.  But no bathers or swimmers.  What a far cry from Mumbai's beaches where we can find intrepid souls splashing around at all hours of the day.  And let us not even mention the water quality.


A busy street in Colombo.  Freshly painted building.  Charming green!


The Presiding Buddha of the Ganga Ramaya Temple. Pleasant place and extremely visitor friendly.  The best attraction of the place is of course the baby elephant whose stuffed daddy has a place of honour in the premises.  The baby though kept me rivetted for several minutes with its playful restlessness. 

Monday, December 12, 2011

The Art of Listening By HENNING MANKELL

December 10, 2011
Maputo, Mozambique
I CAME to Africa with one purpose: I wanted to see the world outside the perspective of European egocentricity. I could have chosen Asia or South America. I ended up in Africa because the plane ticket there was cheapest.
I came and I stayed. For nearly 25 years I’ve lived off and on in Mozambique. Time has passed, and I’m no longer young; in fact, I’m approaching old age. But my motive for living this straddled existence, with one foot in African sand and the other in European snow, in the melancholy region of Norrland in Sweden where I grew up, has to do with wanting to see clearly, to understand.
The simplest way to explain what I’ve learned from my life in Africa is through a parable about why human beings have two ears but only one tongue. Why is this? Probably so that we have to listen twice as much as we speak.
In Africa listening is a guiding principle. It’s a principle that’s been lost in the constant chatter of the Western world, where no one seems to have the time or even the desire to listen to anyone else. From my own experience, I’ve noticed how much faster I have to answer a question during a TV interview than I did 10, maybe even 5, years ago. It’s as if we have completely lost the ability to listen. We talk and talk, and we end up frightened by silence, the refuge of those who are at a loss for an answer.
I’m old enough to remember when South American literature emerged in popular consciousness and changed forever our view of the human condition and what it means to be human. Now, I think it’s Africa’s turn.
Everywhere, people on the African continent write and tell stories. Soon, African literature seems likely to burst onto the world scene — much as South American literature did some years ago when Gabriel García Márquez and others led a tumultuous and highly emotional revolt against ingrained truth. Soon an African literary outpouring will offer a new perspective on the human condition. The Mozambican author Mia Couto has, for example, created an African magic realism that mixes written language with the great oral traditions of Africa.
If we are capable of listening, we’re going to discover that many African narratives have completely different structures than we’re used to. I over-simplify, of course. Yet everybody knows that there is truth in what I’m saying: Western literature is normally linear; it proceeds from beginning to end without major digressions in space or time.
That’s not the case in Africa. Here, instead of linear narrative, there is unrestrained and exuberant storytelling that skips back and forth in time and blends together past and present. Someone who may have died long ago can intervene without any fuss in a conversation between two people who are very much alive. Just as an example.
The nomads who still inhabit the Kalahari Desert are said to tell one another stories on their daylong wanderings, during which they search for edible roots and animals to hunt. Often they have more than one story going at the same time. Sometimes they have three or four stories running in parallel. But before they return to the spot where they will spend the night, they manage either to intertwine the stories or split them apart for good, giving each its own ending.
A number of years ago I sat down on a stone bench outside the Teatro Avenida in Maputo, Mozambique, where I work as an artistic consultant. It was a hot day, and we were taking a break from rehearsals so we fled outside, hoping that a cool breeze would drift past. The theater’s air-conditioning system had long since stopped functioning. It must have been over 100 degrees inside while we were working.
Two old African men were sitting on that bench, but there was room for me, too. In Africa people share more than just water in a brotherly or sisterly fashion. Even when it comes to shade, people are generous.
I heard the two men talking about a third old man who had recently died. One of them said, “I was visiting him at his home. He started to tell me an amazing story about something that had happened to him when he was young. But it was a long story. Night came, and we decided that I should come back the next day to hear the rest. But when I arrived, he was dead.”
The man fell silent. I decided not to leave that bench until I heard how the other man would respond to what he’d heard. I had an instinctive feeling that it would prove to be important.
Finally he, too, spoke.
“That’s not a good way to die — before you’ve told the end of your story.”
It struck me as I listened to those two men that a truer nomination for our species than Homo sapiens might be Homo narrans, the storytelling person. What differentiates us from animals is the fact that we can listen to other people’s dreams, fears, joys, sorrows, desires and defeats — and they in turn can listen to ours.
Many people make the mistake of confusing information with knowledge. They are not the same thing. Knowledge involves the interpretation of information. Knowledge involves listening.
So if I am right that we are storytelling creatures, and as long as we permit ourselves to be quiet for a while now and then, the eternal narrative will continue.
Many words will be written on the wind and the sand, or end up in some obscure digital vault. But the storytelling will go on until the last human being stops listening. Then we can send the great chronicle of humanity out into the endless universe.
Who knows? Maybe someone is out there, willing to listen ...
Henning Mankell is the author of many books, including the Wallander novels. This article was translated from the Swedish by Tiina Nunnally from the Swedish.

Wednesday, November 2, 2011

Daniel Kahneman: Beware the ‘inside view’

( I admire DK's writings) In an excerpt from his new book, Thinking, Fast and Slow, the Nobel laureate recalls how an inwardly focused forecasting approach once led him astray, and why an external perspective can help executives do better.


November 2011 • Daniel Kahneman

In the 1970s, I convinced some officials in the Israeli Ministry of Education of the need for a curriculum to teach judgment and decision making in high schools. The team that I assembled to design the curriculum and write a textbook for it included several experienced teachers, some of my psychology students, and Seymour Fox, then dean of the Hebrew University’s School of Education and an expert in curriculum development.

After meeting every Friday afternoon for about a year, we had constructed a detailed outline of the syllabus, written a couple of chapters, and run a few sample lessons. We all felt we had made good progress. Then, as we were discussing procedures for estimating uncertain quantities, an exercise occurred to me. I asked everyone to write down their estimate of how long it would take us to submit a finished draft of the textbook to the Ministry of Education. I was following a procedure that we already planned to incorporate into our curriculum: the proper way to elicit information from a group is not by starting with a public discussion, but by confidentially collecting each person’s judgment. I collected the estimates and jotted the results on the blackboard. They were narrowly centered around two years: the low end was one and a half, the high end two and a half years.

A shocking disconnect

Then I turned to Seymour, our curriculum expert, and asked whether he could think of other teams similar to ours that had developed a curriculum from scratch. Seymour said he could think of quite a few, and it turned out that he was familiar with the details of several. I asked him to think of these teams when they were at the same point in the process as we were. How much longer did it take them to finish their textbook projects?

He fell silent. When he finally spoke, it seemed to me that he was blushing, embarrassed by his own answer: “You know, I never realized this before, but in fact not all the teams at a stage comparable to ours ever did complete their task. A substantial fraction of the teams ended up failing to finish the job.”

This was worrisome; we had never considered the possibility that we might fail. My anxiety rising, I asked how large he estimated that fraction was. “About 40 percent,” he said. By now, a pall of gloom was falling over the room. “Those who finished, how long did it take them?”

“I cannot think of any group that finished in less than seven years,” Seymour said, “nor any that took more than ten.”   I grasped at a straw: “When you compare our skills and resources to those of the other groups, how good are we? How would you rank us in comparison with these teams?”  Seymour did not hesitate long this time.  “We’re below average,” he said, “but not by much.”

This came as a complete surprise to all of us—including Seymour, whose prior estimate had been well within the optimistic consensus of the group. Until I prompted him, there was no connection in his mind between his knowledge of the history of other teams and his forecast of our future.  We should have quit that day. None of us was willing to invest six more years of work in a project with a 40 percent chance of failure. Yet although we must have sensed that persevering was not reasonable, the warning did not provide an immediately compelling reason to quit. After a few minutes of desultory debate, we gathered ourselves and carried on as if nothing had happened. Facing a choice, we gave up rationality rather than the enterprise.

The book was completed eight years later. By that time, I was no longer living in Israel and had long since ceased to be part of the team, which finished the task after many unpredictable vicissitudes. The initial enthusiasm for the idea in the Ministry of Education had waned, and the textbook was never used.

Why the inside view didn’t work

This embarrassing episode remains one of the most instructive experiences of my professional life. I had stumbled onto a distinction between two profoundly different approaches to forecasting, which Amos Tversky  and I later labeled the inside view and the outside view.  

The inside view is the one that all of us, including Seymour, spontaneously adopted to assess the future of our project. We focused on our specific circumstances and searched for evidence in our own experiences. We had a sketchy plan: we knew how many chapters we were going to write, and we had an idea of how long it had taken us to write the two that we had already done. The more cautious among us probably added a few months as a margin of error.

But extrapolating was a mistake. We were forecasting based on the information in front of us, but the chapters we wrote first were easier than others and our commitment to the project was probably at its peak. The main problem was that we failed to allow for what Donald Rumsfeld famously called “unknown unknowns.” At the time, there was no way for us to foresee the succession of events that would cause the project to drag on for so long: divorces, illnesses, crises of coordination with bureaucracies. These unanticipated events not only slow the writing process, but produce long periods during which little or no progress is made at all. Of course, the same must have been true for the other teams that Seymour knew about. Like us, the members of those teams did not know the odds they were facing. There are many ways for any plan to fail, and although most of them are too improbable to be anticipated, the likelihood that something will go wrong in a big project is high.

How an outside view can help

The second question I asked Seymour directed his attention away from us and toward a class of similar cases. Seymour estimated the base rate of success in that reference class: 40 percent failure and seven to ten years for completion. His informal survey was surely not up to scientific standards of evidence, but it provided a reasonable basis for a baseline prediction: the prediction you make about a case if you know nothing except the category to which it belongs. This should be the anchor for further adjustments. If you are asked to guess the height of a woman and all you know is that she lives in New York City, for example, your baseline prediction is your best guess of the average height of women in the city. If you are now given case-specific information—that the woman’s son is the starting center of his high school basketball team—you will adjust your estimate. Seymour’s comparison of our team to others suggested that the forecast of our outcome was slightly worse than the baseline prediction, which was already grim.

The spectacular accuracy of the outside-view forecast in our specific case was surely a fluke and should not count as evidence for the validity of the outside view. However, the argument for the outside view should be made on general grounds: if the reference class is properly chosen, the outside view will give an indication of where the ballpark is. It may suggest, as it did in our case, that the inside-view forecasts are not even close.

Monday, October 24, 2011

Don’t Blink! The Hazards of Confidence (NYT: Oct. 24, 2011)

By DANIEL KAHNEMAN


Many decades ago I spent what seemed like a great deal of time under a scorching sun, watching groups of sweaty soldiers as they solved a problem. I was doing my national service in the Israeli Army at the time. I had completed an undergraduate degree in psychology, and after a year as an infantry officer, I was assigned to the army’s Psychology Branch, where one of my occasional duties was to help evaluate candidates for officer training. We used methods that were developed by the British Army in World War II.

One test, called the leaderless group challenge, was conducted on an obstacle field. Eight candidates, strangers to one another, with all insignia of rank removed and only numbered tags to identify them, were instructed to lift a long log from the ground and haul it to a wall about six feet high. There, they were told that the entire group had to get to the other side of the wall without the log touching either the ground or the wall, and without anyone touching the wall. If any of these things happened, they were to acknowledge it and start again.

A common solution was for several men to reach the other side by crawling along the log as the other men held it up at an angle, like a giant fishing rod. Then one man would climb onto another’s shoulder and tip the log to the far side. The last two men would then have to jump up at the log, now suspended from the other side by those who had made it over, shinny their way along its length and then leap down safely once they crossed the wall. Failure was common at this point, which required starting over.

As a colleague and I monitored the exercise, we made note of who took charge, who tried to lead but was rebuffed, how much each soldier contributed to the group effort. We saw who seemed to be stubborn, submissive, arrogant, patient, hot-tempered, persistent or a quitter. We sometimes saw competitive spite when someone whose idea had been rejected by the group no longer worked very hard. And we saw reactions to crisis: who berated a comrade whose mistake caused the whole group to fail, who stepped forward to lead when the exhausted team had to start over. Under the stress of the event, we felt, each man’s true nature revealed itself in sharp relief.

After watching the candidates go through several such tests, we had to summarize our impressions of the soldiers’ leadership abilities with a grade and determine who would be eligible for officer training. We spent some time discussing each case and reviewing our impressions. The task was not difficult, because we had already seen each of these soldiers’ leadership skills. Some of the men looked like strong leaders, others seemed like wimps or arrogant fools, others mediocre but not hopeless. Quite a few appeared to be so weak that we ruled them out as officer candidates. When our multiple observations of each candidate converged on a coherent picture, we were completely confident in our evaluations and believed that what we saw pointed directly to the future. The soldier who took over when the group was in trouble and led the team over the wall was a leader at that moment. The obvious best guess about how he would do in training, or in combat, was that he would be as effective as he had been at the wall. Any other prediction seemed inconsistent with what we saw.

Because our impressions of how well each soldier performed were generally coherent and clear, our formal predictions were just as definite. We rarely experienced doubt or conflicting impressions. We were quite willing to declare: “This one will never make it,” “That fellow is rather mediocre, but should do O.K.” or “He will be a star.” We felt no need to question our forecasts, moderate them or equivocate. If challenged, however, we were fully prepared to admit, “But of course anything could happen.”

We were willing to make that admission because, as it turned out, despite our certainty about the potential of individual candidates, our forecasts were largely useless. The evidence was overwhelming. Every few months we had a feedback session in which we could compare our evaluations of future cadets with the judgments of their commanders at the officer-training school. The story was always the same: our ability to predict performance at the school was negligible. Our forecasts were better than blind guesses, but not by much.


We were downcast for a while after receiving the discouraging news. But this was the army. Useful or not, there was a routine to be followed, and there were orders to be obeyed. Another batch of candidates would arrive the next day. We took them to the obstacle field, we faced them with the wall, they lifted the log and within a few minutes we saw their true natures revealed, as clearly as ever. The dismal truth about the quality of our predictions had no effect whatsoever on how we evaluated new candidates and very little effect on the confidence we had in our judgments and predictions.

I thought that what was happening to us was remarkable. The statistical evidence of our failure should have shaken our confidence in our judgments of particular candidates, but it did not. It should also have caused us to moderate our predictions, but it did not. We knew as a general fact that our predictions were little better than random guesses, but we continued to feel and act as if each particular prediction was valid. I was reminded of visual illusions, which remain compelling even when you know that what you see is false. I was so struck by the analogy that I coined a term for our experience: the illusion of validity.

I had discovered my first cognitive fallacy.

Decades later, I can see many of the central themes of my thinking about judgment in that old experience. One of these themes is that people who face a difficult question often answer an easier one instead, without realizing it. We were required to predict a soldier’s performance in officer training and in combat, but we did so by evaluating his behavior over one hour in an artificial situation. This was a perfect instance of a general rule that I call WYSIATI, “What you see is all there is.” We had made up a story from the little we knew but had no way to allow for what we did not know about the individual’s future, which was almost everything that would actually matter. When you know as little as we did, you should not make extreme predictions like “He will be a star.” The stars we saw on the obstacle field were most likely accidental flickers, in which a coincidence of random events — like who was near the wall — largely determined who became a leader. Other events — some of them also random — would determine later success in training and combat.

You may be surprised by our failure: it is natural to expect the same leadership ability to manifest itself in various situations. But the exaggerated expectation of consistency is a common error. We are prone to think that the world is more regular and predictable than it really is, because our memory automatically and continuously maintains a story about what is going on, and because the rules of memory tend to make that story as coherent as possible and to suppress alternatives. Fast thinking is not prone to doubt.

The confidence we experience as we make a judgment is not a reasoned evaluation of the probability that it is right. Confidence is a feeling, one determined mostly by the coherence of the story and by the ease with which it comes to mind, even when the evidence for the story is sparse and unreliable. The bias toward coherence favors overconfidence. An individual who expresses high confidence probably has a good story, which may or may not be true.
I coined the term “illusion of validity” because the confidence we had in judgments about individual soldiers was not affected by a statistical fact we knew to be true — that our predictions were unrelated to the truth. This is not an isolated observation. When a compelling impression of a particular event clashes with general knowledge, the impression commonly prevails. And this goes for you, too. The confidence you will experience in your future judgments will not be diminished by what you just read, even if you believe every word.
I first visited a Wall Street firm in 1984. I was there with my longtime collaborator Amos Tversky, who died in 1996, and our friend Richard Thaler, now a guru of behavioral economics. Our host, a senior investment manager, had invited us to discuss the role of judgment biases in investing. I knew so little about finance at the time that I had no idea what to ask him, but I remember one exchange. “When you sell a stock,” I asked him, “who buys it?” He answered with a wave in the vague direction of the window, indicating that he expected the buyer to be someone else very much like him. That was odd: because most buyers and sellers know that they have the same information as one another, what made one person buy and the other sell? Buyers think the price is too low and likely to rise; sellers think the price is high and likely to drop. The puzzle is why buyers and sellers alike think that the current price is wrong.

Most people in the investment business have read Burton Malkiel’s wonderful book “A Random Walk Down Wall Street.” Malkiel’s central idea is that a stock’s price incorporates all the available knowledge about the value of the company and the best predictions about the future of the stock. If some people believe that the price of a stock will be higher tomorrow, they will buy more of it today. This, in turn, will cause its price to rise. If all assets in a market are correctly priced, no one can expect either to gain or to lose by trading.

We now know, however, that the theory is not quite right. Many individual investors lose consistently by trading, an achievement that a dart-throwing chimp could not match. The first demonstration of this startling conclusion was put forward by Terry Odean, a former student of mine who is now a finance professor at the University of California, Berkeley.

Odean analyzed the trading records of 10,000 brokerage accounts of individual investors over a seven-year period, allowing him to identify all instances in which an investor sold one stock and soon afterward bought another stock. By these actions the investor revealed that he (most of the investors were men) had a definite idea about the future of two stocks: he expected the stock that he bought to do better than the one he sold.

To determine whether those appraisals were well founded, Odean compared the returns of the two stocks over the following year. The results were unequivocally bad. On average, the shares investors sold did better than those they bought, by a very substantial margin: 3.3 percentage points per year, in addition to the significant costs of executing the trades. Some individuals did much better, others did much worse, but the large majority of individual investors would have done better by taking a nap rather than by acting on their ideas. In a paper titled “Trading Is Hazardous to Your Wealth,” Odean and his colleague Brad Barber showed that, on average, the most active traders had the poorest results, while those who traded the least earned the highest returns. In another paper, “Boys Will Be Boys,” they reported that men act on their useless ideas significantly more often than women do, and that as a result women achieve better investment results than men.

Of course, there is always someone on the other side of a transaction; in general, it’s a financial institution or professional investor, ready to take advantage of the mistakes that individual traders make. Further research by Barber and Odean has shed light on these mistakes. Individual investors like to lock in their gains; they sell “winners,” stocks whose prices have gone up, and they hang on to their losers. Unfortunately for them, in the short run going forward recent winners tend to do better than recent losers, so individuals sell the wrong stocks. They also buy the wrong stocks. Individual investors predictably flock to stocks in companies that are in the news. Professional investors are more selective in responding to news. These findings provide some justification for the label of “smart money” that finance professionals apply to themselves.

Although professionals are able to extract a considerable amount of wealth from amateurs, few stock pickers, if any, have the skill needed to beat the market consistently, year after year. The diagnostic for the existence of any skill is the consistency of individual differences in achievement. The logic is simple: if individual differences in any one year are due entirely to luck, the ranking of investors and funds will vary erratically and the year-to-year correlation will be zero. Where there is skill, however, the rankings will be more stable. The persistence of individual differences is the measure by which we confirm the existence of skill among golfers, orthodontists or speedy toll collectors on the turnpike.

Mutual funds are run by highly experienced and hard-working professionals who buy and sell stocks to achieve the best possible results for their clients. Nevertheless, the evidence from more than 50 years of research is conclusive: for a large majority of fund managers, the selection of stocks is more like rolling dice than like playing poker. At least two out of every three mutual funds underperform the overall market in any given year.

More important, the year-to-year correlation among the outcomes of mutual funds is very small, barely different from zero. The funds that were successful in any given year were mostly lucky; they had a good roll of the dice. There is general agreement among researchers that this is true for nearly all stock pickers, whether they know it or not — and most do not. The subjective experience of traders is that they are making sensible, educated guesses in a situation of great uncertainty. In highly efficient markets, however, educated guesses are not more accurate than blind guesses.

Some years after my introduction to the world of finance, I had an unusual opportunity to examine the illusion of skill up close. I was invited to speak to a group of investment advisers in a firm that provided financial advice and other services to very wealthy clients. I asked for some data to prepare my presentation and was granted a small treasure: a spreadsheet summarizing the investment outcomes of some 25 anonymous wealth advisers, for eight consecutive years. The advisers’ scores for each year were the main determinant of their year-end bonuses. It was a simple matter to rank the advisers by their performance and to answer a question: Did the same advisers consistently achieve better returns for their clients year after year? Did some advisers consistently display more skill than others?

To find the answer, I computed the correlations between the rankings of advisers in different years, comparing Year 1 with Year 2, Year 1 with Year 3 and so on up through Year 7 with Year 8. That yielded 28 correlations, one for each pair of years. While I was prepared to find little year-to-year consistency, I was still surprised to find that the average of the 28 correlations was .01. In other words, zero. The stability that would indicate differences in skill was not to be found. The results resembled what you would expect from a dice-rolling contest, not a game of skill.


No one in the firm seemed to be aware of the nature of the game that its stock pickers were playing. The advisers themselves felt they were competent professionals performing a task that was difficult but not impossible, and their superiors agreed. On the evening before the seminar, Richard Thaler and I had dinner with some of the top executives of the firm, the people who decide on the size of bonuses. We asked them to guess the year-to-year correlation in the rankings of individual advisers. They thought they knew what was coming and smiled as they said, “not very high” or “performance certainly fluctuates.” It quickly became clear, however, that no one expected the average correlation to be zero.

What we told the directors of the firm was that, at least when it came to building portfolios, the firm was rewarding luck as if it were skill. This should have been shocking news to them, but it was not. There was no sign that they disbelieved us. How could they? After all, we had analyzed their own results, and they were certainly sophisticated enough to appreciate their implications, which we politely refrained from spelling out. We all went on calmly with our dinner, and I am quite sure that both our findings and their implications were quickly swept under the rug and that life in the firm went on just as before. The illusion of skill is not only an individual aberration; it is deeply ingrained in the culture of the industry. Facts that challenge such basic assumptions — and thereby threaten people’s livelihood and self-esteem — are simply not absorbed. The mind does not digest them. This is particularly true of statistical studies of performance, which provide general facts that people will ignore if they conflict with their personal experience.


The next morning, we reported the findings to the advisers, and their response was equally bland. Their personal experience of exercising careful professional judgment on complex problems was far more compelling to them than an obscure statistical result. When we were done, one executive I dined with the previous evening drove me to the airport. He told me, with a trace of defensiveness, “I have done very well for the firm, and no one can take that away from me.” I smiled and said nothing. But I thought, privately: Well, I took it away from you this morning. If your success was due mostly to chance, how much credit are you entitled to take for it?

We often interact with professionals who exercise their judgment with evident confidence, sometimes priding themselves on the power of their intuition. In a world rife with illusions of validity and skill, can we trust them? How do we distinguish the justified confidence of experts from the sincere overconfidence of professionals who do not know they are out of their depth? We can believe an expert who admits uncertainty but cannot take expressions of high confidence at face value. As I first learned on the obstacle field, people come up with coherent stories and confident predictions even when they know little or nothing. Overconfidence arises because people are often blind to their own blindness.

True intuitive expertise is learned from prolonged experience with good feedback on mistakes. You are probably an expert in guessing your spouse’s mood from one word on the telephone; chess players find a strong move in a single glance at a complex position; and true legends of instant diagnoses are common among physicians. To know whether you can trust a particular intuitive judgment, there are two questions you should ask: Is the environment in which the judgment is made sufficiently regular to enable predictions from the available evidence? The answer is yes for diagnosticians, no for stock pickers. Do the professionals have an adequate opportunity to learn the cues and the regularities? The answer here depends on the professionals’ experience and on the quality and speed with which they discover their mistakes. Anesthesiologists have a better chance to develop intuitions than radiologists do. Many of the professionals we encounter easily pass both tests, and their off-the-cuff judgments deserve to be taken seriously. In general, however, you should not take assertive and confident people at their own evaluation unless you have independent reason to believe that they know what they are talking about. Unfortunately, this advice is difficult to follow: overconfident professionals sincerely believe they have expertise, act as experts and look like experts. You will have to struggle to remind yourself that they may be in the grip of an illusion.


Daniel Kahneman is emeritus professor of psychology and of public affairs at Princeton University and a winner of the 2002 Noble Prize in Economics. This article is adapted from his book “Thinking, Fast and Slow,” out this month from Farrar, Straus & Giroux.



Me according to Visual DNA test

You have got a fresh positive attitude to life which means you are naturally drawn to anything that is modern and original. You have strong views and opinions and your adventurous spirit means that you are not afraid to ruffle a few feathers in order to voice them. You are a true optimist at heart. You like to see the world through rose-tinted spectacles. It's all about believing that dreams can come true.
You're sophisticated and inquisitive with a real passion for art and culture. You pride yourself on being an early adopter of the latest music and films and always like to have a good book on the go. Your ability to bring together very diverse and even dissenting opinions is rooted in your appreciation for all points of view. You believe in immersing yourself in interesting experiences that make you look at people, places and opportunities from new angles. Being sensitive and creative you want to feel connected to the world around you and actively seek out opportunities to explore it. It's all about broadening your horizons and living life to the full. Anything else would not fulfill your curious nature. You'll love the list of The Best 1,000 Movies Ever Made, the Critics' Picks and Arts Beat.

( Conclusions from an online NYT personality test on Oct. 24, 2011)